A Word from Our CEO, Murray Norton, March 2025

Back to the Future

Rather topical and in the news lately is John F. Kennedy. He said "Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future."

I was reminded of this when asked to compare the Jersey of 1985 with that of 2025. Once I had got over the shock of the forty years that had passed in the blink of an eye since Marty the Doc did time travel and Live Aid became the concert of a generation, I got to thinking about Jersey back then.

In 1985 Jersey’s economy used to revolve around agriculture, tourism, and a growing financial sector. Dairy farming and potato exports were especially important, while tourism brought in plenty of visitors and revenue. It turns out, Jersey offered 8,726 beds in guest houses and 15,336 beds in hotels, totalling around 24,062 beds. This period marked one of the peaks in Jersey's tourism history. Meanwhile, the financial industry was just starting to take off, laying the groundwork for future expansion.

The population of Jersey was approximately 80,000 residents. The demographic structure was relatively younger, with a higher birth rate contributing to natural population growth. The cost of living in Jersey was relatively moderate, with housing, goods, and services priced comparably to other parts of the British Isles. How did it feel? It felt vibrant and busy, and to be fair if you had that many hotels and guest houses, you needed a seasonal workforce that added to the bars, restaurants and shops too.

Today the financial and insurance sector now sits at the heart of Jersey's economy, making up 40.4% of the island's Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2023. This growth comes from rising profits in banking and other financial services. Some like the late great Colin Powell saw this coming. Other key industries include real estate (11.7%) and professional, scientific, and technical services (8.6%). Meanwhile, there just over 8,000 hotel beds and traditional sectors like agriculture and fishing have shrunk, now contributing just 0.6% to the GVA.

By the end of 2023, Jersey's population was estimated at 103,650. Over the past decade, it grew by around 4,350 people, with migration making up about 77% of that increase. Interestingly, there were more deaths than births in both 2022 and 2023, a trend not seen since 1983, highlighting the island's aging population.

My point here is that it all changes, and compared to forty years before April 1985, well we were still rather occupied in every sense of the word in April 1945. Given the speed of change in technology, and technology is indeed a major driver of change across many sectors and aspects of society, it is safe to assume that the next ten to fifteen years will see even more change, and perhaps rather than the rose-tinted reflections and determination to reproduce the glory days of the past, we’d be better looking at what Jersey could be by 2040.

There is a heck of a lot to do if we plan on arresting the demographic slide and provide the skills and technology-enables solutions for the continued financial sector success, digital transformation, tech innovation, healthcare and see the evolution of our tourism offering. Given our offering, becoming a global hub for talent is a possible route. It will require direction, consensus, investment and leadership. And it is a conversation for now.

Time flies, even without a flux-capacitor fitted Delorean.